アラビア半島南端に位置するイエメンでは、2015年3月からサウディアラビア主導の有志連合軍や有 志連合軍が支援する国際承認政府と、武装組織「フーシー派」の武力紛争が続いてきた。イエメンは紅 海・アデン湾の要衝バーブ・マンデブ海峡と接しており、海洋安全保障上の重要性を有している。しか しなカヾら、イエメン内戦は「忘れられた内戦」と形容され、とりわけ日本語での情勢分析は不足してい る。そのため本「イエメン情勢クオータリー」シリーズを通して、イエメン情勢に関する定期的な情報 発信を試みる。 ・ ノヾツクナンノヾー 吉田智聡「8年目を迎えるイエメン内戦一リヤド合意と連合抵抗軍台頭の内戦への影響ー」『NIDSコメンタリー』第209号、 防衛研究所(2022年3月15日). —-「イエメン情勢クオータリー(2023年1月〜3月)ーイラン・サウディアラビア国交正常化合意の焦点としてのイエ メン内戦? ー」『NIDSコメンタリー』第258号、防衛研究所(2023年4月20日). —-「イエメン情勢クオータリー(2023年4月〜6月)ー南部分離主義勢力の憤懣と「南部国民憲章」の採択ー」『NIDS コメンタリー』第266号、防衛研究所(2023年7月18日). 1″Wusul Ra’is al-Wafd al-WatanT bi Rifqa al-Wafd al-cUmanT ila San’a’,” Wikala al-Anba’al-Yamamya, August 17, 2023, https://www.saba.ye/ar/news3258486.htm. 2 “QiyadT HuthT Yaqul inna al-Su’udTya Talabat min al-Jama’a Tashkfl Wafid li Ziyara-ha li Muwasala Niqashat al-Tarafayn bi Sha’n Inha’ al-Harb/’ al-Masdar, September 10, 2023, https://almasdaronline.com/articles/280741. 3 Wizara al-KharijTya, Twitter Post, September 20, 2023, 09:38 AM, https://x.com/KSAMOFA/status/l704293833146507334?s=20. 4 “Saudi-UAE Spat Comes to a Head in Hadramawt,” In: Murad Al-Arefi, Ryan Bailey, William Clough, Casey Coombs, Andrew Hammond, Khadiga Hashem, Yazeed Al-Jeddawy, Elham Omar, Ghaidaa Al-Rashidy, Miriam Saleh, Lara Uhlenhaut, Ned Whalley, and the Sana’a Center Economic Unit, The Yemen Revie-w June-July 2023, Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, August 15, 2023, p. 7. 5有志連合軍の空爆については、以下が詳しい。 吉田智聡「有志連合軍によるイエメン空爆の再拡大と対象地域の変化」『中東研究』第541号、2021年、80-94頁。 6初報時に2名の死亡が報告され、その後4名まで被害が拡大した。 Mahmoud Mohamed Barakat, “Bahrain says 4th army officer dies from Yemen rebel drone attack,Anadolu Agency, September 30, 2023, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/bahrain-says-4th-army-officer-dies-from-yemen-rebel-drone-attack/3004325.; “Maqtal “AskarTyayn Bahraymyayn Hujum HuthT “ala al-Mintaqa al-Hududlya al-JanubTya li al-Su’tldiya,” France 24, September 26, 2023, https://www.france24.com/ar/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%88%D8%B3%D8%B7/ 20230925-%D9%87%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%85-%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%AB%D9%8A-%D8%A8%D8%B7%D8%A7%D8%A6%D8 %B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%85%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D9%8A%D8%AE%D9%84%D9%81-%D9%82%D8%AA %D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%86-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%8 4%D8%A8%D8%AD%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9% 86%D8%B7%D9%82%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%AF%D9%88%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8 %AC%D9%86%D9%88%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%84%D9%84%D8%B3%D8%B9%D9%88%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9. 7 2022年に見られたフーシー派の海軍増強については、以下が詳しい。 吉田智聡「イエメン・フーシー派の海上戦力とその発展一国家性の追求手段としての海上戦力ー」『海幹校戦略研究』第13巻 第1号、2023 年、39-56 頁。 -9 – NIDSコメンタリー第281号 8戦闘機の種類の推定にあたり、清岡克吉先生(防衛研究所研究員)からのご指導を賜った。清岡先生に対して、拝謝の意を 表する。 9 “UN, US Continue Shuttle Diplomacy,55 In: Murad AlArefi, Ryan Bailey, William Clough, Casey Coombs, Yasmeen Al-Eryani, Magnus Fitz, Andrew Hammond, Abdulghani Al-Iryani, Khadiga Hashem, Yazeed Al-Jeddawy, Maged Al-Madhaji, Elham Omar, Ghaidaa Al- Rashidy, Miriam Saleh, Maysaa Shiya Al-Deen, Lara Uhlenhaut, Ned Whalley, and the Sana’a Center Economic Unit, The Yemen Review August 2023, Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, September 14, 2023, p.11. 10 “Bayan Hamm li Majlis al-Difac al-Watam li al-Jumhuriya al-Yamaniya,” Wikala al-Anba’al-Yamantya. September 27, 2023, https://www.saba.ye/ar/news326788 l.htm. 11 Thomas Juneau, “How Iran Perceives the Houthi-Saudi Talks,” In: Maged al-Madhaji, Maysaa Shiya al-Deen, Hussam Radman, Abdulghani al-Iryani, and Thomas Juneau, Houthis Make Ojficial Visit to Riyadh for Talks with Saudi Arabia. Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, September 18, 2023, p. 9. 12 Maysaa Shuja El-Deen, “What Will Peace Do to the Houthis?,” In: Maged al-Madhaji, Maysaa Shuja al-Deen, Hussam Radman, Abdulghani al-Iryani, and Thomas Juneau, Houthis Make Official Visit to Riyadh for Talks with Saudi Arabia. Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, September 18, 2023, p. 5. 13 Majed al-Madhaji, “Saudi-Houthi Negotiations CarryOpportunities and Risks,” In: Maged al-Madhaji, Maysaa Shuja al-Deen, Hussam Radman, Abdulghani al-Iryani, and Thomas Juneau, Houthis Make Ojficial Visit to Riyadh for Talks with Saudi Arabia. Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, September 18, 2023, p. 4. 14 “al-HuthTyun fT al-Yaman Yarfidun al-Musharaka fi Hiwar fT al-Su’udiya,” France 24. March 17, 2022, https://www.france24.com/ar/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B3 %D8%AA%D9%85%D8%Bl%D8%A9/20220317-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%AB%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%86-%D9% 81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%85%D9%86-%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%81%D8%B6%D9%88%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9 %84%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A9-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D9%81% D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D8%B9%D9%88%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9. 15 “Saudi Arabia Praises “Positive Results’ after Yemen’s Houthi Rebels Visit Kingdom for Peace Talks,” Associated Press. September 21, 2023, https://apnews.com/article/saudi-arabia-yemen-war-peace-talks-d2a9ad9efelab0b4f5d51597098f46a2. 16 “al-Mashahid al-Kamila li al-“Ard al-“Askari al-Muhlb li al-Jaysh al-Yamanl wa al-Quwat al-Musallaha bi Munasaba al-“Id al-Tasi” li Thawra al-HadT wa al-“lshrln min Sibtambir,” al-riam al-Harbi. September 23, 2023, https://www.mmy.ye/298784/. 17 “”Ra’Ts Majlis al-Qiyada Yushayyid bi Dawr Abna’ al-Mahra fi Ma”rakatay Isti”ada Mu’assasat al-Dawla wa al-Tanmiya,” Wikala al-Anba’ al-Yamaniya. August 17, 2023, https://www.sabanew.net/story/ar/100408. 18 Elenora Ardemagni, “”Changing Dynamics Reshape Power Networks in Yemen’s “Two Hadramawts’,” Middle East Institute. July 24, 2023, https://www.mei.edu/publications/changing-dynamics-reshape-power-networks-yemens-two-hadramawts. 19 “”al-Ra’Ts al-ZubaydT YaltaqT WazTr al-Kharijlya al-ImaratT,” Dir’ al-Janub. September 20, 2023, https://deraalganoob.com/archives/29151. 20 “”Siham al-Sharq.. MudTr Amn Abyan Yu”lin Istikmal TathTr Wadi al-Junan wa Kaffa al-Manatiq al-Muhit bi-hi,” Dir( al-Janub. August 23, 2023, https://deraalganoob.com/archives/28153. 21″”Quwat al-Hizam al-Amm Taqul inna-ha Ahbatat “AmalTya Tahnb li Muharrakat Ta’irat Musayyara Lahj Kanat fT Tanq-ha li MilTshiyat al-Huthl,” al-Masdar. September 18, 2023, https://almasdaronline.com/articles/281249. 22 “”al-Ra’Ts al-ZubaydT Ya”qid Jalasa Mubahathat ma” Ra’Tsa JumhurTya Kusufu,” Dir’ al-Janub. September 20, 2023, https:// deraalganoob. com/archives/29147. 23 “”al-Ra’Ts al-ZubaydT Yastaqbil WazTr al-KharijTya Janub al-Sudan,” Dir(al-Janub. September 22, 2023, https: // deraal ganoob.com/archive s/29225. 24 “”Yemen’s Southern Leader Renews Calls for Separate State at UN,” Associated Press. September 23, 2023, https://apnews.com/article/yemen-united-nations-southern-transitional-council-09552d6cd5a34a45c6daef73815f6205. 25 Dakshinie Gunaratne, Debi Dash, Marie-Louise Tougas, and Wolf-Christian Paes, Final Report of the Panel of Experts on Yemen. United Nations Security Council, January 26, 2021,p. 63. 26 “”Tawattur fT Bab al-Mandab: Wiqfa QiblTya Munawi’a wa Ukhra Mu’yyida li Taharrukat Quwat Tariq Salih “ala al-Shant al-SahilT,” al- Masdar. July 30, 2023, https://almasdaronline.com/articles/278406. 27 “”Tariq Salih Yansahib min Bab al-Mandab ila al-Makha ba”d Mushaddat ma” Qaba’il al-Subayha,” al-Watan. August 1,2023, https://www.al-wattan.net/news/229047. 28国民抵抗軍の西海岸地域支配の態様については、以下を参照した。 吉田智聡「12月2日革命の失敗とイエメン国民抵抗軍の伸張ー柔靭な生存戦略下での西海岸地域支配ー」『中東研究』第548 号、2023 年、94-104 頁。 -10 – NIDSコメンタリー第281号 29 “Tas’id ‘Askari bayn Tariq Salih wa Qaba5il al-WazicTya fT Ta°izz,” Ta ‘izz al-Yawm, September 10, 2023, https://taiztoday.net/2023/09/10/%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%B9%D9%8A%D8%AF-%D8%B9%D8%B3%D9%83%D8%B1%D9%8A-%D8 %A8%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%B7%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%82-%D8%B5%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD-%D9%88%D9%82%D8%A8% D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B2/. 30 “Insaniya al-Muqawama al-Wataniya Tuwazzi’ al-Haqlba al-Madrasiya fT al- WaziTya,55 Wikala al-Thani min Disambir, September 7, 2023, https://2dec.net/news62627.html. 31″Insamya al-Muqawama Tuwasil TaqdTm al-Musacadat al-Ghadha?Tya fT Ma’rib,” Wikala al-Thani min Disambir. July 31,2023, https: //2dec. net/ne ws6193 l.html. 32 “Shaddad cala Raf al-Jahiziya: al-‘Arada Yastaqbil Ra’is Hay’a al-Arkan wa Mustashar Qa’id al-Muqawama al-Wataniya,5, Wikala al- Thani min Disambir, September 3, 2023, https://2dec.net/news62535.html. 33 “Min al-Khutut al-Amamiya fl Jabha Sirwah.. Natiq al-Muqawama al-Wataniya al-cAmid Duwayd: Lan Natanazal °an Jumhuriya-na wa Lan Tahkum-na Khurafa al-Wilaya Ma Dumna Ahya5,55 Wikala al-Thani min Disambir. August 28, 2023, https://2dec.net/news62397.html. 34 “Majalis al-Muqawama al-Sha°biya fT al-Muhafazat al-Yamaniya Tu’lin Tawahhud-ha taht Mizalla al-Majlis al-Acla li al-Muqawama al- Sha’bTya,55 al-Masdar. July 29, 2023, https://almasdaronline.com/articles/278347. 35 “al-Sultat al-Yamaniya Tuqirr Damm al-Muqawama al-Sha°biya ila Wahdat al-Jaysh wa al-Amn,” Shinkhuwa, July 28, 2015, http: // arabic. news. cn/2015-07/29/c_l 34456551.htm. 36 “Na’ib Ra’is al-Majlis al-Acla li al-Muqawama: Hadaf-na al-Milishiyat al-Huthiya Faqat wa Lays Laday-na Khusuma ma° Ahad/5 al-Harf 28, August 5, 2023, https://alharf28.com/p-89688. 37 “Sheikh Hammoud Saeed al-Mekhlafi Accuses Arab Coalition of Closing Ports in the Faces of Taiz Wounded,55 al-Masdar (English), September 30, 2018, https://almasdaronline.com/articles/158909. 38 “al-N£ib al-Yamam “Muhammad Waraq” fT Hiwar mac “Yaman Shabab Net”: al-Imarat Tunaffidh Mukhattat DuwalT KhabTth fT al- Sawahil wa al-Juzur al-Yamaniya li Maslaha Israel wa Buntaniya,55 Yaman Shabab Net. June 24, 2021, https://yemenshabab. net/ interviews/67290. -11-
NIDS Tokyo Japan 防衛研究所 National Institute for Defense Studies NIDSコメンタリー 第281号 2023年10月19日
ジジイがあれこれ考えた 